做项目计划别忽略这三点
萨拉·布加齐亚
古人云：“凡事預则立，不预则废。”英文中也有类似的说法，比如“Failing to plan is planning to fail” （没有计划就是计划着失败）。项目计划是项目管理的重要组成部分，本文指出了项目经理做项目计划时要谨记的三点：帕金森定律（Parkinsons Law）、学生综合征（Student Syndrome）和墨菲定律（Murphys Law）。
帕金森定律指出，即使一项任务实际上可以在较短的时间内完成，但该任务的预估时间很可能会被全部使用。人们会找到一些有用但不一定必要的事情去做，来填满分配给一项任务的全部时间。因此，在做项目计划时，要压缩单个任务的预估时间，鼓励团队成员发挥创造力在较短的目标时间内完成任务。
学生综合征是指项目团队成员把工作推到最后一刻，在任务开始时以更慢、更放松的节奏工作，类似于学生们把备考工作一直推到考试前最后一天。要完全消除学生综合征不太可能，但项目经理可以利用一些技巧来控制它，例如为任务分配较短的时间估计，在时间上预留余地；
设立完成特定任务的里程碑，并定期对照这些里程碑来监控进度；
创建更短、更易于管理的任务。
墨菲定律指出，会出错的事情总会出错。这意味着项目管理中我们可以抱着最好的希望，但要做最坏的打算。我们要着眼长远，提前计划，使风险管理成为日常项目管理的一部分。
Did you know there are some fundamental rules for project managers when planning？ Effective planning is the foundation and starting point for any successful initiative. As the saying goes：
“Failing to plan is planning to fail.” Planning is an essential part of all project management methodologies. While most methodologies include specific tools and techniques project managers can and should leverage when creating and maintaining their project plans， there are a few general rules that should be taken into account and that are not explicitly spelled out in project planning material. This article outlines three rules， based on observations by insightful management practitioners. I encourage every project manager to keep the three rules in mind when planning and managing their projects.
Parkinsons Law
This law states that “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.”This statement was part of an article published in The Economist in 1955 by Cyril Northcote Parkinson， a British author， based on his experience working in the British civil service. Parkinsons Law notes that the time you estimate for a specific task will likely be used in full even if the task could actually be completed in a shorter period of time. The same applies to meetings. A meeting planned for one hour will likely go on for the whole hour even when the planned objective of the meeting was achieved within the first thirty or forty-five minutes. In most cases， if you give someone four hours to complete a task， they will likely spend at least the full four hours on the task even if it could be completed in two hours. People will find things to do， which may be useful but not necessarily essential， to fill the whole time allotted for the task. Parkinsons Law can be leveraged in planning by taking the padding out of individual task estimates and challenging project team members to be creative and explore ways to complete their tasks within the targeted shorter timeline. However， Parkinsons Law should not be used to set unachievable goals. Additionally， project managers should keep a contingency buffer for the whole project to be used in cases where the assumed estimates for individual tasks were too ambitious. This approach is one of the techniques used by the Critical Chain method.
Student Syndrome
This term was coined by Eliyahu M. Goldratt， an author， and originator of the Theory of Constraints（TOC）， in his book， The Critical Chain. Goldratt used this term to refer to project team members pushing work to the last moments and working at a slower and more relaxed pace at the beginning of a task， similar to what students do by pushing work on their assignments or studying for an exam until the last day before the exam or the assignments due date. It is not possible to eliminate the Student Syndrome completely， but there are techniques a project manager can leverage to keep it under control：
allocating shorter time estimates to tasks and keeping a buffer as a backup plan；
identifying milestones for completing specific tasks and monitoring progress against these milestones with the project team on a regular basis， and creating shorter， more manageable tasks to uncover Student Syndrome symptoms， address them early on and prevent a larger impact on the project schedule.
Murphys Law
Murphys Law basically points out that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. It was coined after Captain Edward A. Murphy， an engineer who said something along these lines when working on a project at Edwards Airforce Base in 1949. What this means is to always plan for the worst. You can hope for the best and assume best-case scenarios， but not without having a backup plan and maintaining a contingency buffer for the time when things go wrong or when tasks take longer than estimated. Also， this makes risk management even more critical. Start with the assumption that things will go wrong and your project is already at risk. Keep your eyes on the long run and plan ahead for potential surprises. Make risk management part of your ongoing project management routine and encourage your project team and all stakeholders to proactively look out for risks and work together to brainstorm options for managing risks.
Conclusion
These three rules are based on very insightful observations， and many of us can relate to these based on our own experience. Keeping these rules in mind not only helps with better planning but also increases the chances of project success. Such rules instill a more thoughtful and proactive approach to managing projects， anticipating risks， and planning for these risks and surprises ahead of time. P
（Note：
The article was originally published on PM World 360 Magazine.）
About the author：Salah Bugazia， PMP， MBA， has over 20 years of background in business and information technology， large project delivery and program management， as well as strong business acumen and hands-on technical expertise.
猜你喜欢 墨菲帕金森定律 哪个墨菲老年博览·上半月(2021年5期)2021-06-20哪个墨菲风流一代·经典文摘(2021年2期)2021-02-2528岁抢劫者被82岁奶奶打进医院新传奇(2019年49期)2019-12-27倒霉定律儿童故事画报·智力大王(2019年5期)2019-07-14“陶”气猪少年文艺·开心阅读作文(2019年2期)2019-03-04帕金森综合征的源头可能在阑尾恋爱婚姻家庭·养生版(2019年1期)2019-01-25万有引力定律试题与研究·高考理综物理(2016年3期)2017-03-28耐人寻味的定律读者·校园版(2014年7期)2014-05-14食堂定律知识窗(2013年9期)2013-02-11